🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.