A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
