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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."